LMJStrategy &
Policy Group
LMJ Solutions / Evidence & Decision Making

Data-Driven
Decision Making
for Public Leaders

Move from “we think” to a clear question, credible evidence, and a decision you can explain.

Evidence with judgment

Data-driven.
Never data-only.

Strong public decisions integrate quantitative evidence, qualitative and community information, professional expertise, fiscal and operational realities, and policy objectives.

A dataset can reveal a pattern. It cannot, on its own, determine what a community values, what an organization can deliver, or which tradeoffs are acceptable. Leaders must bring those considerations into the decision—and explain their reasoning.

The decision-making framework

Six steps from a question
to an accountable outcome.

DEFINE → GATHER → ANALYZE → CONTEXTUALIZE → DECIDE → MEASURE

01

Define

Name the decision before collecting the data.

Frame a specific question, population, place, time period, and policy objective.

02

Gather

Bring the right evidence together.

Combine reliable quantitative sources with community input and professional knowledge. Check quality, gaps, and privacy.

03

Analyze

Look for patterns—and test the first explanation.

Compare rates and trends, use appropriate baselines, and examine differences across groups. Association alone does not establish cause.

04

Contextualize

Ask what the numbers leave out.

Consider lived experience, local conditions, fiscal capacity, staffing, operational constraints, and policy priorities.

05

Decide

Make the tradeoffs explicit.

Compare feasible options, explain the evidence and uncertainty, and choose a proportionate course of action.

06

Measure

Define success and learn from results.

Set a baseline, outcome measures, an accountable owner, and a review date. Track unintended effects and adjust.

Public-sector practice

Start with a claim.
Build a better question.

Illustrative scenarios—not client results or findings about any particular community. Expand each example to follow the decision process.

Crime trends“Crime is getting worse everywhere.”
  1. Define

    Which offenses, in which neighborhoods, have changed over the past three years—and what prevention decision needs to be made?

  2. Gather

    Review incident records, population estimates, reporting practices, resident experiences, and frontline observations.

  3. Analyze

    Compare offense-specific rates, seasonal patterns, and locations. Check whether reporting or classification changes explain part of the trend.

  4. Contextualize

    Consider underreporting, trust, environmental conditions, staffing, budgets, and the limits of enforcement-only responses.

  5. Decide

    Choose a targeted, feasible prevention response with community partners rather than assuming a citywide increase requires the same response everywhere.

  6. Measure

    Track the relevant offense rate, residents’ perceptions of safety, and unintended effects against a baseline at scheduled reviews.

Housing needs“We just need to build more housing.”
  1. Define

    Which households face the greatest housing gaps, and what types, locations, and price ranges are missing?

  2. Gather

    Combine rents, incomes, vacancies, permits, household projections, and resident and provider interviews.

  3. Analyze

    Compare supply with affordability and household needs; examine differences by neighborhood and household type.

  4. Contextualize

    Consider infrastructure, land availability, transportation, displacement concerns, financing, and local policy objectives.

  5. Decide

    Prioritize a feasible mix of supply, preservation, or targeted assistance based on the identified gap.

  6. Measure

    Track homes delivered or preserved, housing cost burden, and displacement indicators over an appropriate review period.

Business activity“Downtown businesses are struggling.”
  1. Define

    Which types of businesses are struggling, where, and what decision could the local government influence?

  2. Gather

    Review openings and closures, vacancies, available sales indicators, foot traffic, and business-owner and customer feedback.

  3. Analyze

    Examine trends by sector and location, accounting for seasonality and changes in the mix of businesses.

  4. Contextualize

    Consider rent, access, permitting, workforce availability, market conditions, and the capacity to deliver support.

  5. Decide

    Select a focused response to the evidenced barrier, such as a permitting improvement or access pilot.

  6. Measure

    Track vacancy, business retention, processing times, and participant feedback against a pre-intervention baseline.

Traffic“This road is always congested.”
  1. Define

    At which locations and times are delays or safety problems occurring, and whose trips are affected?

  2. Gather

    Combine travel-time observations, counts, crash records, school or event schedules, and input from drivers, pedestrians, and transit users.

  3. Analyze

    Separate peak-hour patterns from all-day conditions and compare delay, reliability, and safety measures.

  4. Contextualize

    Weigh pedestrian safety, emergency access, accessibility, costs, road ownership, and nearby land uses.

  5. Decide

    Pilot a proportionate operational change before committing to a larger capital project where appropriate.

  6. Measure

    Compare travel-time reliability and safety indicators before and after the pilot, allowing for seasonal differences.

Program effectiveness“The program is popular, so it must be working.”
  1. Define

    What outcome is the program intended to change, for whom, and over what period?

  2. Gather

    Review participation, costs, baseline and follow-up outcomes, and feedback from participants and people who do not participate.

  3. Analyze

    Distinguish participation and satisfaction from outcomes. Use a suitable comparison where feasible and acknowledge selection bias.

  4. Contextualize

    Consider implementation quality, barriers to access, external influences, staff capacity, and alternative uses of resources.

  5. Decide

    Continue, adapt, expand, or discontinue the program based on outcomes, equity, feasibility, and cost.

  6. Measure

    Track the intended outcome, reach, cost per meaningful result, and unintended effects at a defined review date.

Training & Applied Consulting

Bring a real decision.
Leave with a clearer path.

Use the framework to structure a leadership discussion, guide a working session, or examine a live policy or program decision with LMJ.

Organize the work around a decision question, an evidence plan, a comparison of options, and a measurement plan—with responsibilities and review dates.

Connected through the LMJ model

Evidence belongs
in the full policy cycle.

Data-Driven Decision Making supports the Analyze, Decide, and Measure stages of the LMJ Policy Innovation Model™. Engagement helps define the right questions and interpret the evidence; implementation turns the chosen response into practice.

Let's work together

Better decisions begin
with a conversation.

Let’s turn evidence, engagement, and strategy into action.
Connect with Lisa James, MPP, Founder & Principal.

lmjgovservices@outlook.com